Northwest
San Lorenzo, Lita, Los Bancos
Exceptionalfar above normal
over90%
Chance of passing the 1997 total
Seasonal rainfall outlook
Rainfall probabilities by region of Ecuador for the coming months, compared with normal and with 1997.
Issued 10 November 2026
November and December 2026
Extreme El Niño strengthens: an exceptionally wet November and December on the Coast and in the western Sierra, and a drier one in the upper Amazon basin
In October the sea off Ecuador and Peru was about 5 °C above normal, almost 2 °C warmer than in October 1997, and the warming keeps growing across the equatorial Pacific. On the Coast, October rain has already passed that of October 1997 at the stations with a record of that year. The intertropical convergence zone is already starting to show its southern branch near the equator (between 1°N and 2°S), far earlier than normal: that second branch usually appears in February or March. This keeps the Coast and the western slope of the Sierra in the sector of deep ascent. East of the cordillera, the air sinking to compensate that ascent keeps the upper Amazon basin below normal, as already observed in October, and in the eastern Sierra rain should range from near normal to above normal.
Hover over a region or tap it to see its probabilities.
Region borders are approximate; near a border, rain may resemble that of the neighbouring region.
By region
Northern coast
Esmeraldas, Quinindé, Santo Domingo
Exceptionalfar above normal
75%
Chance of passing the 1997 total
Central coast
Manta, Portoviejo, Quevedo, Babahoyo, Guayaquil, Santa Elena
Exceptionalfar above normal
over90%
Chance of passing the 1997 total
Southern coast
Milagro, Machala, Pasaje
Exceptionalfar above normal
87%
Chance of passing the 1997 total
Northern western Sierra
Tulcán, Ibarra, Quito, Machachi
Exceptionalfar above normal
89%
Chance of passing the 1997 total
Southern western Sierra
Guaranda, Alausí, Cañar, Catamayo, Celica
Exceptionalfar above normal
58%
Chance of passing the 1997 total
Eastern Sierra
Latacunga, Ambato, Riobamba, Cuenca, Loja
Above normal
Above normal is only slightly more likely than near normal.
Northern Amazon and foothills
Nueva Loja, Coca, Tena, Puyo
Below normal
Eastern Amazon lowlands
Shushufindi, Nuevo Rocafuerte
No clear tendencythe three categories are about equally likely
Southern Amazon
Macas, Zamora
Below normal
Next update: around 10 December.
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January and February 2027
The January and February outlook, region by region, is free as well and will be published here in two or three days, with its map and PDF bulletin.
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