Open guides
How to turn a forecast into an operational decision
A loss nobody blamed on the rain, and the bridge that was missing: the decision your operation already makes, the threshold that fires it, and a rule that fits on one line.
Read the open guide →Nowcasting, weather and seasonal forecasting: which horizon fits which decision?
From October to the night of the cut, one rose-farm decision passes through three horizons. What picks the horizon is not taste: it is how long each action takes to prepare.
Read the open guide →How to use uncertainty without making the forecast useless
The decision was never binary: confirm, stand down, or wait for the next run. A story told across three days about the third option, and the day it stops being available.
Read the open guide →Decision Challenge Worksheet
A two-sided worksheet for doing the open guides' exercises with your own numbers: your decision rule (the two costs, the threshold, an owner with a name), your rule inventory, and your horizon map at five lead times.
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Tell us what you decide under weather uncertainty. We review whether we can help and get back to you.
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